Chicken Killer

 

Don't cry for me Argentina

I made it to argentina! Two delayed flights later. Two windstorms and an overbooked flight.

I have my blackberry and I will put some pics up. It is such a change from Indiana winters.

Name that dog

I have wanted a dog since we had to give Boss the dog back this summer. My chicken raising has been thwarted by attack after attack of racoons, opossums, and coyotes.

A dog seemed like the answer to the problem. A really big dog. Leila hasn't been as eager because dogs take more time, training, and are just more trouble than cats. Boss was an exceptional dog whose only bad habit was chasing skunks.

Well, we now have a dog. She doesn't have a name still. We went to the shelter and looked at a St Bernard-lab mix that we liked. A few days later I came home and there was a st bernard-lab mix dog sitting in front of the front door. But this was a stray, not the dog from the shelter. We are keeping her!

In memorium

I never met President Hinckley. I never spoke to him or shook his hand. But, he made a big impact on my life just the same.

When I was 19 I went on to Nicaragua as a missionary, but what most people don't know is that I almost didn't go. After I got my mission call that explained which mission I was going to and when, I had a terrible internal debate and had decided not to go on my mission.

After recieving a mission call, the Church asks the prospective missionary to send in a letter accepting the responsibility. I had the letter in my bag and in it I explained that I didn't feel up to the challenge, that I didn't have the conviction to do it, that it meant leaving behind a life I still wanted, but I hadn't mailed it yet.

I was in the BYU philharmonic at the time and we had a fundraising gig that night as part of BYU's capital campaign. I didn't realize that President Hinckley was going to be there or that he would speak. I was sitting near front and the orchestra was directly behind the podium. During the concert, President Hinckley got up to speak. I was a few feet away, but looking at his back as he spoke to the crowd. Next to me was my notebook with my letter, like the tell-tale heart.

I don't remember what we played, or what President Hinckley said. It was something about the importance of BYU and need for our support I imagine. But what I remember is being in that room, with the letter turning down my mission call, and hearing him speak. I knew that I had done the wrong thing. He was just what he said that he was, the prophet, and since I knew that, I had to go. My doubts about everything else and myself were could not stand up to that.

I went home, rewrote my letter, and went.

Things have fallen in place since. I am a plant breeder because of a bus trip through Juigalpa as I watched the harvest and the processing of coffee beans. I was riding there with Elder Sparkman and we were discussing the imports and exports of rice and wheat. The impression was so clear of what I wanted to do. I was amazed to find out that it was an actual job with a major and everything when I returned to school. I met my wife in my first genetics class. I got my first lab job from the recommendation of my genetics prof. From that naturally grew my masters thesis. While presenting my research at meetings I was introduced to the VP of research of cotton inc and offered a fellowship for a PhD. Now I am here, working at a popcorn company as a plant breeder.

But at each turning point, there has been that moment of clarity where I knew what direction I should go. And the doors were opened. That moment in the performance hall listening to President Hinckley was not the first time, but so much of my life has hinged on that decision made in that moment because he really was the prophet.

May he rest in peace.

Who to vote for?

I am disappointed that Gov. Richardson has dropped out of the race. I was actually excited about a presidential candidate and felt like he had a real chance, especially if he was the candidate against Romney or McCain. So now I am undecided again. American public media put out the following survey that attempts to match your responses with that of the slate of republican and democratic party candidates. It then lets you compare your results with that of other participants. Each response is weighted by how important you say that issue is to you.

I was not surprised to see that my responses matched the democrats the best, but was surprised to see that my answers matched that of John Edwards and Hilary Clinton more than the others. I just don't like either of them though so it does not answer my dilemna. Of the republicans, I like John McCain and Mitt Romney. Because I am mormon I root for Mitt Romney because he is one of us, but I would probably be more likely to vote for McCain.

Christmas vacation and the flu

We went to Utah and Idaho over the break and saw almost the whole family. It had been a long time. We love being in Indiana, except that our families are all far away. We miss out on a lot because of that.



We met Leila's family in Utah at the Laketown lodge. It was a great place to stay, with plenty of room for everyone, games and plenty of TVs, video games, and a movie theater room.



It was a full house and unfortunately Aleah got sick and threw up periodically.
She didn't spread it around too much, but we tried to keep her isolated. We went cross country skiing, sledding, and made snow sculptures in the park.





Then we went to my mom's house in Boise with Jon and Charlotte and Sammy and my mom. Sammy had been sick with the flu and was on the mend; he had been in the hospital because of dehydration. Aleah still was throwing up every day or two, but was in great spirits and didn't act sick at all. The first night we had a big family dinner with all of us siblings and families. Mom even convinced Rich to invite his girlfriend and her daughter. We ate and ate and ate. Mom makes these orange rolls that just melt. I think I ate a dozen. A couple of days later Leila and I got sick and so did Rich's girlfriend. It didn't last too long, but no good.



The best part of the trip was seeing everyone. The girls played with their cousins and I talked and talked and read and ate. So all of my favorite activities.







Our last night we stayed in Salt Lake City at a hotel near temple square. I returned the rental car at the airport and then took the bus back to downtown. I missed my stop and had to walk a dozen blocks, which is a lot in Salt Lake. Aleah threw up in the car as we were driving and then again in the hotel room, but Leila and Emily were able to go walk around Temple Square for a while and see the sights.

 

Where is global warming when you need it?

Leila was supposed to fly to Utah on Sunday. I was going to take them to the airport at 5 AM and they were going to spend the week with Leila's sister and I was going to meet them on Saturday. Then the forecast showed the chance of 1-2 inches of snow. That wasn't too bad. Then they said 4-6, then 6-12. Suddenly 40 mile an hour winds were added to the snow forecast.

The airport called and told us their flights were canceled. They were also canceled today. It looks like Tuesday they will be leaving for Utah. Not to complain about having my family stay longer with me and not being alone for the week, but I had big plans to finish some projects around the house as well as Christmas presents and did I mention the sleeping. Oh, the sleeping without interruptions was going to be a highlight of my vacation. Oh, the sleeping. The sleeping. I will need to start working on projects and presents even though they are here, so it won't be a surprise for them, but it will get done, I hope. I will put pictures up if I finish, if not, one more unfinished project.

Church was also canceled and we stayed holed up until after lunch when the winds died down. Emily and Aleah played in the snow as I dug out the cars, the driveway, and the porch. Drifts were about 3 feet deep but some patches were only a few inches. It is hard to say exactly how much snow we had since it is still blowing around. I will put up some pictures. Emily dug a snow cave in one snowpile and Aleah made snow angels until she had snow inside her coat and boots and mittens and hat. They don't seem to mind the cold as much as I do. Emily insisted on throwing snowballs at me the whole time and so I would toss a shovel full of snow at her. It didn't even phase her. Incredible.

To Do List

In spirit of the very amateur movie "Things to do" as well as the more professional "Bucket List" as well as the "To do list blog" I have started a life list:

Stuff I want to do:

(Not in any particular order)

1. Make a violin
2. Learn another language, maybe Hindi or German
3. Run in a marathon
4. Meet the prophet or an apostle
5. Be in a band - preferably bluegrass
6. Learn woodworking
7. Go on service mission
8. Go on germplasm collecting trip
9. Work at a living history farm
10. Have solar panels or wind power to supplement electricity
11. Go back to Nicaragua
12. Go to blues club
13. Commute to work with recumbent bike
14. Build velomobile
15. Learn to use rowing scull and be in a sculling race
16. Write a book
17. Invent something, discover something, imagine something, do something new and original.
18. Have barn dance in our barn
19. Prove something new mathematically
20. ?


Stuff I don't really want to do:
1. Jump out of an airplane - for some reason in movies this is always something people want to do. I have no desire to fall out of an airplane. Now go on a glider, that is a different story
2. Eat Mondongo - beef tripe, knuckle and gristle stew. Sorry Nicaragua, it is just wrong.
3. Spelunking in tight spaces - I see pictures of large caverns with large stalagmites and stalagtites is tempting, but having to squeeze in narrow dark spaces to get there convinces me otherwise.

New links, old friends

I recently heard from Matt and Carol from China. They lived in Texas and were in our ward. Emily and Sam, their son, are the same age and were close friends. I remember at a wedding reception trying to console a very upset Sam because Emily wanted to dance with other people. Matt is a researcher in China studying environmental restoration. They have two websites chronicalling all of their adventures. I have linked to them in the sidebar.

My sister Anna and her husband mike have also jumped into blogging. They may not be in China but they had multiple skunks invade their bedroom, so it seems pretty wild in Florida.

My mom commented to me that she felt like blogs were like leaving your windows open for strangers to peer into. I feel the like it does open up my life to strangers, but also to friends. I would feel much more isolated without it. As it is I know what is going on with my friends and family even though I live far away. And if I remember to post it you can still know me and my family. I like that a blog opens my life to the world. I like that idea.

New cell phone

I have a new toy, a blackberry cell phone. I have not posted in a while since our home internet is slower than tar. I have internet on my phone though that is functional. The keyboard is built for the Littles. I can peck at it and get out a few things.

I will try to add pictures from work.





We just got back from visiting the Hansen's in Ohio. They have a full house, but there is a critical mass of kids and they spontaneously erupt into playing and don't take much entertaining. Nels and I talked office and national politics and I even enjoyed watching football over there.

Before that Aleah turned three. She isn't happy about it though. She has decided that three is "big" and she wants to stay "little" so she is still 2. Kinda like turning 29 again.

Chicken killers

Public Enemy #1



Death toll: over 20 chickens.

We have caught three of them. Leila let one go at the Purdue farm. Our neighbor, Ed, shot the other two.

Picture from Wikipedia


Public Enemy #2


Death toll: 2 of my favorite chickens and 8 eggs.

This is a 'possum that we caught about a month ago and released in the Purdue forestry lands. I didn't take a picture of the one that I killed, but I thought about it as I carried it on the end of the pitchfork.

I just didn't realize I could kill something like that and that I would be proud of it.

I went into the chicken coup to shut them in for the night and when I turned on the light it was eating eggs out of the laying boxes. Opossums are almost cute until their teeth show, they are kinda like the little miner aliens on Galaxy Quest that way.

I grabbed a pipe that was leaned up against the door and waived it in the air. The possum turned around to eat another egg so I hit him with the pipe. It bared its teeth at me and started towards the roost where the chickens were. If it had run away I would have let it be, but now it was life or death. I hit it again and it hid behind a pallet in the corner. I grabbed another copper pipe that was cut at an angle with a sharper point and stabbed it. I held it down with the pipe and hit it with a shovel until it stopped moving. I thought it might be playing dead, so I ran got the pitchfork and stabbed it through.

Horses Don't Like Coyotes

Emily went riding yesterday on Princess, Trent's horse that she has riding lessons on. She rides like a pro, fluid and in control. She isn't great at side passing and gets nervous/scared about barrel racing, but that is understandable since Princess is a barrel racing champion horse and gets into it. She knows what to do when she sees those barrels and goes as fast as she can.

Yesterday, as Emily was taking her into a harvested corn field to the east of our house Princess got spooked and took off. I looked out the window and saw them galloping past and thought, "Wow, Emily has no fear. I would be panicking if the horse went that fast. How is she getting Princess to do that!" Then I realized that Emily was not in control and leaning back trying to get the horse to stop desperately. Princess ran at full bore past all of our barns and Emily turned her around and brought her back. All at a dead run. As they turned the corner out of the corn field and onto the road, Emily ducked a branch, lost her balance, and fell backwards off of the horse onto the gravel.

Her fall took minutes. But I was frozen too. Leila said her life flashed before her eyes.

Emily was crying and I picked her up and told her she had to get back on. She reluctantly climbed back up and rode back to the pasture. I managed to convince her that something had scared Princess and that it wasn't going to happen again. She made a few circles and was a little less shaky and panicky. Pretty scary for all of us. She hit her head and has a big goose egg and loosened her front teeth.

I went back to the field to see if there was something to frighten the horse. There were two coyotes right there hiding among the weeds. I am guessing that Princess doesn't like coyotes.

Halloween

I cannot believe how fast this month has flown by. Halloween is tomorrow and the girls have their costumes laid out and ready for any trick-or-treating emergency. They love dressing up any time, but dressing up and visiting people, plus candy - its like they died and went to heaven. Emily is going to be a cat. Aleah is donning her princess clothes, so normal day. Leila is going to be a witch. I am going to make a cardboard sword and shield and be a knight.

I never liked trick-or-treating as a kid much. I don't know why but it never seemed that fun. I preferred to hand out candy and see everyone's costumes. When I was older, I always went to Jennifer Drury's house for halloween. They made a haunted house maze out of their basement and had boxes of costumes and make-up. We would get all ghouled up and then try to scare the trick-or-treaters till about 9 or 10 O'clock. I was typecast as the mad scientist, but after all the beakers were filled with dry ice and colored water, the skulls were piled on the table, and Jennifer's brother was in his Frankenstein costume it was a good schtick. After that we would shed our costumes and watch scary movies - usually old black and white classics like "The Haunting".



Our friend Becca goes all out for Halloween and her party each year in Texas was always a highlight of the year. This year we carved pumpkins for the Asay's Halloween party. Aleah liked hers so much she carries it around with her and takes it to bed with her. We will have to sneak it out sometime before it rots.

Pictures I keep meaning to write something about

The Iraq War

The Iraq War - I am against it. I was from the beginning. As soon as I heard that we were going to bomb Afghanistan to start a global "War on Terror." I felt my stomach drop. These terrorist groups are essentially Gadianton Robbers, it doesn't help to punish the innocent people that surround them. At least in Afghanistan there was a resistant movement to replace the Taliban, which did have direct links to terrorist groups. Every speech about Iraq seemed like such double-speak. Their justifications about weapons of mass destruction were based on a house of cards that I have a hard time believing could have been true.

I hate though hearing from anti-war groups that we need to pull out because of the loss of American Soldier's lives. Their lives are Precious, but the casualty rates are so low compared to World War II, Vietnam. I have been watching Ken Burn's WW II documentary on PBS and the Iraq war is a skirmish compared to WWII.

The biggest argument against the war is not our loss of life, but what we have done to destroy the country of Iraq and its people. The number of civilian casualties is huge. Refugees are fleeing to neighboring countries. And it is our fault. These are people who should be our friends and allies and we have allowed the insurgency to rage so high they have no choice but to escape. Yet we are not bringing them here.

We operate huge prisons where American G.I.s torture civilians. We hold enemy combatants for indeterminate periods of time in foreign countries like Cuba and in secret CIA prisons with no possibility for review, trial or defense. What limits does this war have? We are supposed to be the good guys and we are acting like thugs.

I am in favor of us spreading freedom around the world, as our commander in chief is found of saying, but we are not doing that. We are not living up to the ideals set forward in our own constitution and how can we succeed if we do that?

Fresh chicken eggs

 

Our hens are finally producing eggs. We get about two a day, grandma and I built a nesting box, which is used most of the time. Once and a while there are eggs under the roost or hidden in the corners of the barn.

Sleep Hat

 

Aleah has decided that a sleeping hat is necessary for proper sleep comfort.

Anna's Son - Rylan

My sister Anna and her husband have a new baby. Congrats to them, may their sleepless nights end soon.

When Statistics slams into Science

In the near future my first scientific publications should be coming out. The first is on quantile regression applications for understanding cotton fiber length distributions. The others build on my PhD thesis. The problem is that according to this article the probability gods would say that my research findings are false. John Ioanniddis uses equations for calculating statistical error rates to show that most articles are wrong. His article reads like pilpul - in this case statistics of statistics, but it made me pause and think about the validity of the things I have written. I should confess that some of the claims I made in my masters thesis have already been debunked and it was a painful process.

Truth in scientific papers rests on "proving" that results are "statistically significant." This is not as simple as usually presented. First, statistically most tests are based on the probability of the data given a null hypothesis. This probability is called a p-value. Null hypotheses are usually the opposite of what you really hypothesize. They are usually assuming that the groups or treatments have no effect.

For example, suppose that you have been measuring lung cancer. Among the patients there are four groups: Chain smokers with asbestos sheets, smokers, non-smokers, and vegans from the garden of eden. Suppose the results of the study (Obviously I made this up) were that 100% of chain smokers with asbestos underwear had lung cancer, 20% smokers, 10% non smokers, and 0% of Utopian vegetarians. The null hypothesis would be that all four groups have the same cancer rate, which is on face value a ridiculous idea. We "know" that it is false, the significance of the findings are determined on how false it is. Now the p-value is the probability of a sample of people that match our results given the null hypothesis is TRUE.

This is a convoluted way of thinking, but is at the core of most science. We are assuming that the study is not of the entire population, just a sample, and that different samples might give different estimates of cancer rates depending on what people were included in the study. If we were to repeat this study a million times with a different random sample each time, most estimates of cancer rates would be close to the true value, but some would vary wildly, depending on the people picked to be included. Statistical tests find the sampling frequencies given a population value.

For example, say there were 1000 utopian vegetarians in the world total and 2 of them had lung cancer and only 1000 people are in the original study. So 1000 out of 6.6 billion people are utopian vegetarians and very few are likely to be included in the study. If say two are chosen each time randomly, then almost every time those two are not going to have lung cancer. But, there is a chance that both of the sick utopians would be picked and then the estimate of utopian cancer rate would not be close to 2/1000 but 100%. Now to prove significance of the research results of this made-up study we would set the population frequencies equal for all groups, our null hypothesis. The probability of getting a sample as divergent from that as we saw (100, 20, 5, 0) would be pretty low, assuming the true population values are equal (25, 25, 25, 25).

As pointed out by the Ioanniddis: the difficulty is that not all samples are done well; the biases of the researchers affect what the null hypothesis is; sample sizes may not be large enough; too often experiments aren't replicated; and statistical significance is easier to detect with large effects, not small subtle ones.

What he neglects is Likelihood. Which I only wish I could write a book about, luckily A.W.F. Edwards already did.